Predicted scoreLean
Navy
29.0
UAB
21.7
UAB win probability: 32%
Margin (UAB − Navy): -7.3 (80% range -28 to 13)
Total: 50.7 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Navy 41 – UAB 18 (margin error 15.7, total error 8.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.74% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.