2024 Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024, 4:00 PM · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

Kentucky @ Ole Miss

Predicted scoreLikely

Kentucky

21.2

Ole Miss

31.0

Ole Miss win probability: 73%

Margin (Ole Miss − Kentucky): 9.8 (80% range -10 to 31)

Total: 52.2 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Kentucky 20 – Ole Miss 17 (margin error 12.8, total error 15.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.