2024 Week 4 · Sep 22, 2024, 12:30 AM · University Stadium (NM)

Fresno State @ New Mexico

Predicted scoreLikely

Fresno State

37.7

New Mexico

20.8

New Mexico win probability: 15%

Margin (New Mexico − Fresno State): -16.9 (80% range -38 to 4)

Total: 58.5 (80% range 34 to 84)

Actual: Fresno State 38 – New Mexico 21 (margin error 0.1, total error 0.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.