2024 Week 4 · Sep 22, 2024, 12:00 AM · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)

Michigan State @ Boston College

Predicted scoreToss-up

Michigan State

25.5

Boston College

27.0

Boston College win probability: 54%

Margin (Boston College − Michigan State): 1.5 (80% range -18 to 21)

Total: 52.5 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Michigan State 19 – Boston College 23 (margin error 2.5, total error 10.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.