2024 Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024, 11:00 PM · Doak Campbell Stadium

California @ Florida State

Predicted scoreLikely

California

20.8

Florida State

31.9

Florida State win probability: 76%

Margin (Florida State − California): 11.1 (80% range -9 to 31)

Total: 52.7 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: California 9 – Florida State 14 (margin error 6.1, total error 29.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.