2024 Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024, 11:00 PM · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

Toledo @ Western Kentucky

Predicted scoreToss-up

Toledo

30.0

Western Kentucky

27.8

Western Kentucky win probability: 45%

Margin (Western Kentucky − Toledo): -2.2 (80% range -24 to 18)

Total: 57.8 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: Toledo 21 – Western Kentucky 26 (margin error 7.2, total error 10.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.