2024 Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024, 10:00 PM · Williams Stadium (VA)

East Carolina @ Liberty

Predicted scoreToss-up

East Carolina

26.3

Liberty

27.6

Liberty win probability: 53%

Margin (Liberty − East Carolina): 1.3 (80% range -19 to 21)

Total: 53.9 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: East Carolina 24 – Liberty 35 (margin error 9.7, total error 5.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.