2024 Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024, 8:00 PM · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

Duke @ Middle Tennessee

Predicted scoreConfident

Duke

37.4

Middle Tennessee

19.8

Middle Tennessee win probability: 14%

Margin (Middle Tennessee − Duke): -17.6 (80% range -39 to 3)

Total: 57.2 (80% range 34 to 82)

Actual: Duke 45 – Middle Tennessee 17 (margin error 10.4, total error 4.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.