2024 Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024, 7:30 PM · Huskie Stadium
Buffalo @ Northern Illinois
Predicted scoreLikely
Buffalo
20.3
Northern Illinois
30.3
Northern Illinois win probability: 73%
Margin (Northern Illinois − Buffalo): 9.9 (80% range -10 to 30)
Total: 50.6 (80% range 28 to 74)
Actual: Buffalo 23 – Northern Illinois 20 (margin error 12.9, total error 7.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.