2024 Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024, 6:00 PM · Jack Trice Stadium

Arkansas State @ Iowa State

Predicted scoreLikely

Arkansas State

21.6

Iowa State

37.1

Iowa State win probability: 83%

Margin (Iowa State − Arkansas State): 15.5 (80% range -6 to 37)

Total: 58.7 (80% range 35 to 84)

Actual: Arkansas State 7 – Iowa State 52 (margin error 29.5, total error 0.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.