2024 Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024, 4:00 PM · Kenan Stadium
James Madison @ North Carolina
Predicted scoreToss-up
James Madison
25.8
North Carolina
28.9
North Carolina win probability: 58%
Margin (North Carolina − James Madison): 3.1 (80% range -18 to 24)
Total: 54.7 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: James Madison 70 – North Carolina 50 (margin error 23.1, total error 65.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.