2024 Week 3 · Sep 15, 2024, 2:30 AM · Valley Children's Stadium

New Mexico State @ Fresno State

Predicted scoreLikely

New Mexico State

20.7

Fresno State

34.7

Fresno State win probability: 81%

Margin (Fresno State − New Mexico State): 14.0 (80% range -7 to 35)

Total: 55.5 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: New Mexico State 0 – Fresno State 48 (margin error 34.0, total error 7.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.