2024 Week 3 · Sep 15, 2024, 2:30 AM · California Memorial Stadium

San Diego State @ California

Predicted scoreLikely

San Diego State

19.8

California

28.9

California win probability: 72%

Margin (California − San Diego State): 9.1 (80% range -11 to 29)

Total: 48.7 (80% range 27 to 72)

Actual: San Diego State 10 – California 31 (margin error 11.9, total error 7.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.