2024 Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024, 11:00 PM · M. M. Roberts Stadium

South Florida @ Southern Miss

Predicted scoreLean

South Florida

31.8

Southern Miss

23.6

Southern Miss win probability: 31%

Margin (Southern Miss − South Florida): -8.2 (80% range -28 to 13)

Total: 55.4 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: South Florida 49 – Southern Miss 24 (margin error 16.8, total error 17.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.