2024 Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024, 11:00 PM · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee

Predicted scoreLean

Western Kentucky

28.4

Middle Tennessee

24.0

Middle Tennessee win probability: 39%

Margin (Middle Tennessee − Western Kentucky): -4.4 (80% range -25 to 16)

Total: 52.3 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Western Kentucky 49 – Middle Tennessee 21 (margin error 23.6, total error 17.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.