Predicted scoreLikely
UConn
18.1
Duke
32.9
Duke win probability: 83%
Margin (Duke − UConn): 14.9 (80% range -5 to 35)
Total: 51.0 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: UConn 21 – Duke 26 (margin error 9.9, total error 4.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.71% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.