Predicted scoreConfident
UAB
17.3
Arkansas
36.5
Arkansas win probability: 89%
Margin (Arkansas − UAB): 19.3 (80% range 0 to 40)
Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: UAB 27 – Arkansas 37 (margin error 9.3, total error 10.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 35 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 38 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.