2024 Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024, 4:00 PM · Doak Campbell Stadium

Memphis @ Florida State

Predicted scoreLean

Memphis

25.8

Florida State

34.0

Florida State win probability: 69%

Margin (Florida State − Memphis): 8.2 (80% range -13 to 29)

Total: 59.8 (80% range 35 to 86)

Actual: Memphis 20 – Florida State 12 (margin error 16.2, total error 27.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.