Predicted scoreLikely
LSU
30.1
Arkansas
20.8
Arkansas win probability: 28%
Margin (Arkansas − LSU): -9.3 (80% range -29 to 10)
Total: 50.9 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:58 PM | 0.1 | 54.8 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:05 PM | 0.1 | 54.8 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:25 PM | 0.1 | 54.8 | 50% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:39 AM | 0.1 | 54.8 | 50% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:57 PM | 0.1 | 54.8 | 50% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:32 PM | -0.2 | 54.8 | 49% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:56 PM | -4.5 | 54.7 | 39% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:34 PM | -6.0 | 50.9 | 35% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:11 PM | -6.0 | 50.9 | 35% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:04 PM | -5.8 | 50.8 | 36% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:23 PM | -5.7 | 50.8 | 36% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:57 PM | -9.0 | 51.6 | 28% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:43 PM | -8.9 | 50.7 | 28% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:54 PM | -8.2 | 50.4 | 30% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:00 PM | -9.3 | 50.9 | 28% |