Predicted scoreConfident
Purdue
18.9
Indiana
41.4
Indiana win probability: 92%
Margin (Indiana − Purdue): 22.5 (80% range 2 to 44)
Total: 60.4 (80% range 37 to 86)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 38 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 45 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 35 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:03 PM | 29.4 | 55.8 | 97% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:03 PM | 29.4 | 55.8 | 97% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:29 PM | 29.4 | 55.8 | 97% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:43 AM | 29.4 | 55.8 | 97% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:56 PM | 29.5 | 55.9 | 97% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:53 PM | 30.4 | 57.0 | 97% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:13 PM | 31.0 | 55.9 | 98% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:31 PM | 32.4 | 59.6 | 98% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:08 PM | 32.4 | 59.7 | 98% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:07 PM | 32.5 | 59.8 | 98% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:26 PM | 32.5 | 59.8 | 98% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:35:00 PM | 27.0 | 61.2 | 95% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:45 PM | 24.3 | 60.5 | 93% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:56 PM | 21.8 | 61.8 | 91% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:02 PM | 22.5 | 60.4 | 92% |