2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · California Memorial Stadium
Pittsburgh @ California
Predicted scoreLean
Pittsburgh
28.2
California
21.3
California win probability: 33%
Margin (California − Pittsburgh): -7.0 (80% range -27 to 13)
Total: 49.5 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.74% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.67% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:00 PM | -3.1 | 49.7 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:06 PM | -3.2 | 49.7 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:19 PM | -3.1 | 49.7 | 42% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:33 AM | -3.1 | 49.7 | 42% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:01 PM | -3.2 | 49.7 | 42% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:39 PM | -3.2 | 49.8 | 42% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:49 PM | -7.6 | 52.6 | 32% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:14 PM | -7.7 | 50.1 | 31% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:16 PM | -7.7 | 50.1 | 31% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:00 PM | -7.5 | 50.0 | 31% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:19 PM | -7.5 | 50.0 | 31% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:51 PM | -9.2 | 50.1 | 28% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:37 PM | -10.0 | 49.2 | 26% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:49 PM | -6.8 | 47.9 | 33% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:57 PM | -7.0 | 49.5 | 33% |