Predicted scoreToss-up
UConn
29.5
Wyoming
27.1
Wyoming win probability: 44%
Margin (Wyoming − UConn): -2.4 (80% range -23 to 18)
Total: 56.6 (80% range 33 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:13 PM | -2.0 | 52.7 | 45% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:10 PM | -2.1 | 52.7 | 45% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:27 PM | -2.0 | 52.7 | 45% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:41 AM | -2.0 | 52.7 | 45% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:56 PM | -2.1 | 52.7 | 45% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:30 PM | -2.2 | 53.1 | 45% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:58 PM | -3.4 | 53.4 | 42% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:32 PM | -1.4 | 53.4 | 47% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:10 PM | -1.4 | 53.6 | 47% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:06 PM | -1.2 | 53.4 | 47% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:25 PM | -1.1 | 53.4 | 47% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:59 PM | -1.1 | 56.0 | 47% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:44 PM | -2.5 | 54.2 | 44% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:55 PM | -3.6 | 53.9 | 41% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:01 PM | -2.4 | 56.6 | 44% |