Predicted scoreLikely
Navy
30.5
Charlotte
15.3
Charlotte win probability: 16%
Margin (Charlotte − Navy): -15.1 (80% range -35 to 4)
Total: 45.8 (80% range 24 to 69)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 10 | 0.99% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.90% |
| 21 | 7 | 0.84% |
| 24 | 7 | 0.80% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.80% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:00 PM | -13.9 | 46.0 | 18% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:08 PM | -13.9 | 46.0 | 18% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:37 PM | -13.9 | 46.0 | 18% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:51 AM | -13.9 | 46.0 | 18% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:08 PM | -13.9 | 46.0 | 18% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:45 PM | -14.5 | 45.7 | 16% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:20 PM | -15.1 | 45.8 | 15% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:25 PM | -11.2 | 46.3 | 23% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:03 PM | -11.1 | 46.4 | 23% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:13 PM | -10.7 | 46.4 | 24% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:31 PM | -10.7 | 46.4 | 24% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:31 PM | -13.4 | 42.9 | 18% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:49 PM | -15.8 | 41.2 | 14% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:45:08 PM | -16.8 | 43.7 | 13% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:06 PM | -15.1 | 45.8 | 16% |