2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · Ryan Field
Illinois @ Northwestern
Predicted scoreLikely
Illinois
24.3
Northwestern
35.0
Northwestern win probability: 74%
Margin (Northwestern − Illinois): 10.8 (80% range -10 to 32)
Total: 59.3 (80% range 34 to 85)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.58% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.53% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:06 PM | -1.1 | 52.3 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:02 PM | -1.1 | 52.4 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:17 PM | -1.1 | 52.3 | 47% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:18 AM | -1.1 | 52.4 | 47% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:14 PM | -1.1 | 52.4 | 47% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:06:04 PM | 0.2 | 52.3 | 51% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:43 PM | 0.0 | 52.8 | 50% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:04 PM | -0.9 | 54.3 | 48% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:50 PM | -0.9 | 54.3 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:32 PM | -0.6 | 54.4 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:49 PM | -0.6 | 54.4 | 48% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:46 PM | 9.0 | 58.0 | 71% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:36 PM | 13.2 | 57.5 | 79% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:46 PM | 11.7 | 59.6 | 76% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:14 PM | 10.8 | 59.3 | 74% |