2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Massachusetts @ Bowling Green
Predicted scoreToss-up
Massachusetts
25.1
Bowling Green
24.4
Bowling Green win probability: 49%
Margin (Bowling Green − Massachusetts): -0.7 (80% range -21 to 19)
Total: 49.5 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.79% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:59 PM | 15.0 | 52.2 | 82% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:11 PM | 15.0 | 52.2 | 82% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:39 PM | 15.1 | 52.2 | 82% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:53 AM | 14.9 | 52.3 | 82% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:06 PM | 15.0 | 52.3 | 82% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:43 PM | 14.2 | 52.2 | 81% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:22 PM | 6.9 | 51.0 | 67% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:24 PM | 2.6 | 51.0 | 57% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:01 PM | 2.6 | 51.0 | 57% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:17 PM | 2.9 | 51.0 | 57% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:38 PM | 2.9 | 51.0 | 57% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:47 PM | -3.3 | 47.7 | 42% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:52 PM | 0.7 | 51.0 | 52% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:45:14 PM | 0.4 | 48.3 | 51% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:55 PM | -0.7 | 49.5 | 49% |