2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · Arizona Stadium
Arizona State @ Arizona
Predicted scoreLikely
Arizona State
19.9
Arizona
30.9
Arizona win probability: 76%
Margin (Arizona − Arizona State): 11.1 (80% range -9 to 31)
Total: 50.8 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.90% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:58 PM | 4.2 | 49.8 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:11 PM | 4.2 | 49.8 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:23 PM | 4.2 | 49.9 | 61% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:37 AM | 4.2 | 49.9 | 61% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:59 PM | 4.2 | 49.9 | 61% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:35 PM | 4.8 | 49.1 | 62% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:54 PM | 5.1 | 49.5 | 63% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:18 PM | 3.3 | 51.0 | 58% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:13 PM | 3.3 | 51.1 | 58% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:03 PM | 3.5 | 51.0 | 59% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:22 PM | 3.5 | 51.0 | 59% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:54 PM | 4.3 | 48.8 | 61% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:39 PM | 8.3 | 51.5 | 70% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:52 PM | 11.1 | 50.3 | 76% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:59 PM | 11.1 | 50.8 | 76% |