2026 Week 13 · Nov 27, 2026, 5:00 PM · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss
Predicted scoreLikely
Mississippi State
26.0
Ole Miss
36.4
Ole Miss win probability: 74%
Margin (Ole Miss − Mississippi State): 10.5 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 62.4 (80% range 37 to 89)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 38 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.58% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.57% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.56% |
| 31 | 38 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:08 PM | 14.0 | 59.1 | 81% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:01 PM | 14.1 | 59.1 | 81% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:05 PM | 14.1 | 59.1 | 81% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:25 AM | 14.0 | 59.1 | 80% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:53 PM | 14.3 | 59.1 | 81% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:23 PM | 13.8 | 59.4 | 80% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:36 PM | 10.2 | 62.7 | 73% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:10 PM | 7.1 | 64.2 | 67% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:55 PM | 6.4 | 63.5 | 65% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:23 PM | 6.4 | 63.4 | 65% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:41 PM | 6.4 | 63.4 | 65% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:37 PM | 3.3 | 62.6 | 58% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:56 PM | 2.7 | 63.8 | 57% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:45:04 PM | 3.8 | 62.3 | 59% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:08 PM | 10.5 | 62.4 | 74% |