2026 Week 13 · Nov 27, 2026, 5:00 AM · Raymond James Stadium
Tulane @ South Florida
Predicted scoreToss-up
Tulane
23.9
South Florida
25.0
South Florida win probability: 53%
Margin (South Florida − Tulane): 1.1 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 49.0 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:09 PM | 5.5 | 54.3 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:59 PM | 5.5 | 54.3 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:02 PM | 5.4 | 54.4 | 63% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:28 AM | 5.4 | 54.4 | 63% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:11 PM | 5.4 | 54.3 | 63% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:57 PM | 5.2 | 54.1 | 63% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:33 PM | 3.7 | 49.5 | 60% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:12 PM | 6.7 | 53.1 | 67% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:54 PM | 6.7 | 53.1 | 67% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:22 PM | 6.9 | 53.1 | 67% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:40 PM | 6.9 | 53.1 | 67% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:37 PM | 6.8 | 52.6 | 66% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:56 PM | 4.1 | 52.5 | 60% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:45:04 PM | 4.4 | 53.7 | 61% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:08 PM | 1.1 | 49.0 | 53% |