2026 Week 13 · Nov 24, 2026, 5:00 AM · Waldo Stadium
Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan
Predicted scoreLean
Miami (OH)
22.4
Western Michigan
28.8
Western Michigan win probability: 66%
Margin (Western Michigan − Miami (OH)): 6.4 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 51.2 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:12 PM | 1.5 | 48.0 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:58 PM | 1.5 | 48.0 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:00 PM | 1.5 | 48.0 | 54% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:31 AM | 1.5 | 48.0 | 54% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:02 PM | 1.5 | 48.0 | 54% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:56 PM | 1.6 | 46.6 | 54% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:51 PM | 7.3 | 49.7 | 68% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:29 PM | 7.1 | 50.1 | 68% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:51 PM | 7.0 | 50.2 | 68% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:18 PM | 7.3 | 50.2 | 68% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:37 PM | 7.4 | 50.2 | 68% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:34 PM | 2.3 | 52.4 | 56% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:53 PM | 5.0 | 52.2 | 63% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:41 PM | 6.2 | 52.5 | 65% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:56 PM | 6.4 | 51.2 | 66% |