2026 Week 12 · Nov 22, 2026, 3:30 AM · Reser Stadium
Utah State @ Oregon State
Predicted scoreLean
Utah State
24.5
Oregon State
32.0
Oregon State win probability: 68%
Margin (Oregon State − Utah State): 7.5 (80% range -13 to 28)
Total: 56.4 (80% range 34 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:51 PM | -7.3 | 55.1 | 32% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:58 PM | -7.3 | 55.1 | 32% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:59 PM | -7.3 | 55.1 | 32% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:13 AM | -7.3 | 55.0 | 32% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:30 PM | -7.4 | 55.0 | 32% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:16 PM | -6.9 | 54.9 | 33% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:45 PM | -7.4 | 56.8 | 32% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:44 PM | -7.5 | 56.4 | 32% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:43 PM | -7.4 | 56.4 | 33% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:52 PM | -7.1 | 56.4 | 33% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:04 PM | -7.1 | 56.4 | 33% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:01 PM | -0.7 | 53.2 | 48% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:34 PM | 2.4 | 56.3 | 56% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:18 PM | 5.9 | 55.6 | 64% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:30 PM | 7.5 | 56.4 | 68% |