Predicted scoreToss-up
Memphis
26.7
Navy
26.9
Navy win probability: 51%
Margin (Navy − Memphis): 0.2 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 53.6 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:50 PM | 5.5 | 55.2 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:55 PM | 5.5 | 55.2 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:49 PM | 5.5 | 55.2 | 63% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:03 AM | 5.5 | 55.2 | 63% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:49 PM | 5.6 | 55.2 | 63% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:33 PM | 5.5 | 55.4 | 63% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:33 PM | 3.8 | 56.0 | 59% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:36 PM | 1.9 | 57.7 | 54% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:08 PM | 1.9 | 57.7 | 55% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:24 PM | 2.9 | 57.7 | 57% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:46 PM | 2.9 | 57.7 | 57% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:10 PM | 0.6 | 56.4 | 51% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:25 PM | -2.2 | 55.0 | 45% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:27 PM | -1.2 | 54.7 | 47% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:32 PM | 0.2 | 53.6 | 51% |