Predicted scoreLean
Memphis
24.9
Navy
30.4
Navy win probability: 63%
Margin (Navy − Memphis): 5.5 (80% range -14 to 26)
Total: 55.2 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:50 PM | 5.5 | 55.2 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:55 PM | 5.5 | 55.2 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:49 PM | 5.5 | 55.2 | 63% |