2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Arizona @ Kansas State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Arizona
26.7
Kansas State
26.9
Kansas State win probability: 51%
Margin (Kansas State − Arizona): 0.2 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 53.7 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:46 PM | 0.9 | 50.5 | 52% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:47 PM | 0.9 | 50.5 | 52% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:32 PM | 0.9 | 50.5 | 52% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:38 AM | 0.9 | 50.4 | 52% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:41 PM | 0.9 | 50.4 | 52% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:19 PM | 0.8 | 50.5 | 52% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:10 PM | 0.6 | 51.1 | 52% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:56 PM | 5.1 | 50.6 | 63% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:09 PM | 5.1 | 50.6 | 63% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:37 PM | 5.3 | 50.7 | 64% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:58 PM | 5.4 | 50.7 | 64% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:59 PM | 2.9 | 55.9 | 57% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:18 PM | 1.7 | 55.3 | 54% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:35 PM | -1.1 | 56.1 | 47% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:42 PM | 0.2 | 53.7 | 51% |