2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Arizona @ Kansas State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Arizona
24.8
Kansas State
25.7
Kansas State win probability: 52%
Margin (Kansas State − Arizona): 0.9 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 50.5 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:46 PM | 0.9 | 50.5 | 52% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:47 PM | 0.9 | 50.5 | 52% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:32 PM | 0.9 | 50.5 | 52% |