Predicted scoreLean
BYU
28.7
Kansas
22.3
Kansas win probability: 34%
Margin (Kansas − BYU): -6.4 (80% range -26 to 14)
Total: 51.0 (80% range 29 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.83% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:46 PM | -2.8 | 56.3 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:54 PM | -2.8 | 56.3 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:37 PM | -2.8 | 56.3 | 43% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:56 AM | -2.8 | 56.3 | 43% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:41 PM | -2.8 | 56.2 | 43% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:19 PM | -3.6 | 56.0 | 41% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:11 PM | -3.2 | 56.4 | 43% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:56 PM | -6.7 | 56.5 | 34% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:09 PM | -6.7 | 56.5 | 34% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:37 PM | -6.5 | 56.4 | 34% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:58 PM | -6.5 | 56.5 | 34% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:59 PM | -5.2 | 51.4 | 37% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:18 PM | -1.3 | 49.3 | 47% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:35 PM | -2.6 | 50.7 | 44% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:42 PM | -6.4 | 51.0 | 34% |