2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · McLane Stadium
Texas Tech @ Baylor
Predicted scoreLean
Texas Tech
28.7
Baylor
24.4
Baylor win probability: 40%
Margin (Baylor − Texas Tech): -4.3 (80% range -25 to 17)
Total: 53.1 (80% range 30 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:42 PM | -11.7 | 53.7 | 23% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:47 PM | -11.8 | 53.7 | 23% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:22 PM | -11.8 | 53.7 | 23% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:36 AM | -11.8 | 53.7 | 23% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:39 PM | -11.8 | 53.7 | 23% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:02 PM | -11.3 | 53.9 | 24% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:00 PM | -8.1 | 52.8 | 31% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:54 PM | -5.3 | 54.0 | 37% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:35 PM | -5.3 | 54.0 | 37% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:46 PM | -5.1 | 53.9 | 37% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:10 PM | -5.1 | 53.9 | 37% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:18 PM | -4.5 | 53.0 | 39% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:30 PM | -2.8 | 54.1 | 43% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:20 PM | -4.3 | 53.9 | 39% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:50 PM | -4.3 | 53.1 | 40% |