2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · Mountain America Stadium
Oklahoma State @ Arizona State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Oklahoma State
27.6
Arizona State
27.2
Arizona State win probability: 49%
Margin (Arizona State − Oklahoma State): -0.4 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 54.7 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:42 PM | 17.8 | 52.6 | 87% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:47 PM | 17.8 | 52.6 | 87% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:21 PM | 17.8 | 52.6 | 87% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:38 AM | 17.8 | 52.6 | 87% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:39 PM | 17.8 | 52.6 | 87% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:01 PM | 17.0 | 53.0 | 86% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:59 PM | 19.5 | 52.5 | 89% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:54 PM | 13.3 | 51.1 | 80% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:12 PM | 13.3 | 51.1 | 80% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:34 PM | 13.5 | 51.1 | 81% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:55 PM | 13.5 | 51.1 | 81% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:55 PM | 6.2 | 47.4 | 65% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:17 PM | 3.2 | 49.3 | 58% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:13 PM | 1.9 | 52.1 | 55% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:41 PM | -0.4 | 54.7 | 49% |