2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · Nippert Stadium
Colorado @ Cincinnati
Predicted scoreLean
Colorado
23.7
Cincinnati
27.9
Cincinnati win probability: 60%
Margin (Cincinnati − Colorado): 4.1 (80% range -15 to 24)
Total: 51.6 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:44 PM | 4.7 | 54.8 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:54 PM | 4.6 | 54.8 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:35 PM | 4.6 | 54.8 | 61% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:43 AM | 4.6 | 54.8 | 61% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:40 PM | 4.5 | 54.8 | 61% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:32 PM | 2.7 | 54.9 | 57% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:12 PM | 3.2 | 52.8 | 58% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:55 PM | 4.0 | 52.9 | 60% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:25 PM | 4.1 | 52.8 | 60% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:46 PM | 4.3 | 52.8 | 61% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:10 PM | 4.3 | 52.8 | 61% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:18 PM | 8.3 | 51.9 | 70% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:30 PM | 5.9 | 50.5 | 65% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:20 PM | 6.1 | 49.7 | 65% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:51 PM | 4.1 | 51.6 | 60% |