2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Vanderbilt @ Florida
Predicted scoreLikely
Vanderbilt
22.9
Florida
34.0
Florida win probability: 75%
Margin (Florida − Vanderbilt): 11.1 (80% range -10 to 32)
Total: 56.9 (80% range 33 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.64% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:44 PM | -4.0 | 57.7 | 40% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:53 PM | -3.9 | 57.8 | 40% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:36 PM | -4.0 | 57.8 | 40% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:41 AM | -4.0 | 57.8 | 40% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:28 PM | -4.0 | 57.8 | 40% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:55 PM | -6.4 | 57.8 | 35% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:31 PM | -2.2 | 61.0 | 44% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:37 PM | 3.6 | 58.4 | 59% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:34 PM | 3.7 | 58.4 | 59% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:48 PM | 3.9 | 58.4 | 59% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:11 PM | 3.9 | 58.4 | 59% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:19 PM | 10.7 | 58.1 | 74% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:30 PM | 7.1 | 58.8 | 67% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:19 PM | 7.7 | 57.9 | 68% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:37 PM | 11.1 | 56.9 | 75% |