Predicted scoreLikely
Arkansas
23.7
Texas
33.2
Texas win probability: 72%
Margin (Texas − Arkansas): 9.5 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 56.8 (80% range 34 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:54 PM | 9.5 | 56.8 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:46 PM | 9.5 | 56.8 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:34 PM | 9.5 | 56.8 | 72% |