Predicted scoreLikely
Arkansas
17.9
Texas
31.7
Texas win probability: 81%
Margin (Texas − Arkansas): 13.8 (80% range -6 to 34)
Total: 49.6 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:54 PM | 9.5 | 56.8 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:46 PM | 9.5 | 56.8 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:34 PM | 9.5 | 56.8 | 72% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:39 AM | 9.5 | 56.8 | 72% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:45 PM | 9.5 | 56.8 | 72% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:12 PM | 9.2 | 56.7 | 71% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:06 PM | 13.1 | 56.2 | 79% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:59 PM | 12.5 | 54.8 | 78% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:24 PM | 12.5 | 54.9 | 78% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:26 PM | 12.6 | 54.9 | 78% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:05 PM | 12.6 | 54.9 | 78% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:12 PM | 17.4 | 51.0 | 87% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:26 PM | 16.4 | 51.6 | 85% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:05 PM | 16.0 | 50.3 | 85% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:30 PM | 13.8 | 49.6 | 81% |