2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 12:30 AM · Glass Bowl
Bowling Green @ Toledo
Predicted scoreLikely
Bowling Green
17.8
Toledo
32.0
Toledo win probability: 82%
Margin (Toledo − Bowling Green): 14.2 (80% range -6 to 35)
Total: 49.8 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.82% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:54 PM | 15.3 | 48.2 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:44 PM | 15.3 | 48.2 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:19 PM | 15.3 | 48.2 | 84% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:33 AM | 15.0 | 47.1 | 83% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:33 PM | 15.4 | 48.2 | 84% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:48 PM | 14.7 | 48.3 | 83% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:49 PM | 14.8 | 48.3 | 83% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:47 PM | 18.5 | 48.3 | 88% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:17 PM | 18.6 | 48.3 | 88% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:30 PM | 19.0 | 48.5 | 89% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:51 PM | 19.0 | 48.5 | 89% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:26 PM | 20.0 | 48.2 | 90% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:12 PM | 16.7 | 50.6 | 86% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:10 PM | 13.3 | 49.7 | 81% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:47 PM | 14.2 | 49.8 | 82% |