2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 12:30 AM · Glass Bowl
Bowling Green @ Toledo
Predicted scoreLikely
Bowling Green
16.5
Toledo
31.8
Toledo win probability: 84%
Margin (Toledo − Bowling Green): 15.3 (80% range -4 to 35)
Total: 48.2 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:54 PM | 15.3 | 48.2 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:44 PM | 15.3 | 48.2 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:19 PM | 15.3 | 48.2 | 84% |