2026 Week 12 · Nov 17, 2026, 5:00 AM · Dix Stadium
Miami (OH) @ Kent State
Predicted scoreLikely
Miami (OH)
28.3
Kent State
19.7
Kent State win probability: 29%
Margin (Kent State − Miami (OH)): -8.6 (80% range -28 to 11)
Total: 48.0 (80% range 27 to 71)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 14 | 0.85% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.85% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:47 PM | -11.4 | 51.2 | 23% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:42 PM | -11.4 | 51.2 | 23% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:14 PM | -11.4 | 51.3 | 23% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:28 AM | -11.4 | 51.3 | 23% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:30 PM | -11.4 | 51.3 | 24% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:44 PM | -11.1 | 51.1 | 24% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:25 PM | -9.9 | 57.0 | 27% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:42 PM | -9.7 | 57.6 | 28% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:20 PM | -9.6 | 57.6 | 28% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:51 PM | -9.3 | 57.6 | 28% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:17 PM | -9.2 | 57.6 | 28% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:02 PM | -12.6 | 52.3 | 21% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:09 PM | -7.4 | 50.0 | 32% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:06 PM | -7.5 | 50.9 | 31% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:50 PM | -8.6 | 48.0 | 29% |