2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 PM · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
James Madison @ UConn
Predicted scoreLikely
James Madison
33.3
UConn
23.1
UConn win probability: 26%
Margin (UConn − James Madison): -10.3 (80% range -31 to 10)
Total: 56.4 (80% range 33 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:38 PM | -10.3 | 56.4 | 26% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:39 PM | -10.2 | 56.4 | 26% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:03 PM | -10.3 | 56.4 | 26% |