2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 PM · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
James Madison @ UConn
Predicted scoreLean
James Madison
33.3
UConn
24.8
UConn win probability: 30%
Margin (UConn − James Madison): -8.5 (80% range -29 to 13)
Total: 58.2 (80% range 34 to 83)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:38 PM | -10.3 | 56.4 | 26% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:39 PM | -10.2 | 56.4 | 26% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:03 PM | -10.3 | 56.4 | 26% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:57 AM | -10.3 | 56.4 | 26% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:10 PM | -10.3 | 56.4 | 26% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:03 PM | -9.2 | 55.8 | 28% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:15 PM | -6.0 | 55.8 | 35% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:54 PM | -8.1 | 55.4 | 31% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:37 PM | -9.5 | 55.5 | 28% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:23 PM | -9.1 | 55.4 | 29% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:42 PM | -9.1 | 55.4 | 29% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:48 PM | -12.0 | 57.2 | 23% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:06 PM | -12.7 | 58.6 | 22% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:47 PM | -7.4 | 58.9 | 32% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:21 PM | -8.5 | 58.2 | 30% |