2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Boone Pickens Stadium
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State
Predicted scoreLean
Texas Tech
31.7
Oklahoma State
23.7
Oklahoma State win probability: 31%
Margin (Oklahoma State − Texas Tech): -8.0 (80% range -29 to 13)
Total: 55.4 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.55% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.54% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:33 PM | -22.7 | 51.0 | 7% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:32 PM | -22.7 | 51.0 | 7% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:39 PM | -22.7 | 51.0 | 7% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:12 AM | -22.7 | 51.0 | 7% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:22 PM | -22.7 | 51.0 | 7% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:19 PM | -22.9 | 51.0 | 7% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:50 PM | -23.4 | 50.5 | 6% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:21 PM | -15.0 | 51.5 | 17% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:44 PM | -15.0 | 51.5 | 17% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:56 PM | -14.4 | 50.3 | 18% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:35 PM | -14.7 | 51.5 | 18% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:40 PM | -8.6 | 52.3 | 29% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:59 PM | -8.9 | 52.6 | 29% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:38 PM | -10.1 | 54.2 | 27% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:01 PM | -8.0 | 55.4 | 31% |