Predicted scoreToss-up
Utah
28.0
Arizona
25.8
Arizona win probability: 45%
Margin (Arizona − Utah): -2.2 (80% range -22 to 18)
Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:25 PM | -3.3 | 53.1 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:36 PM | -3.3 | 53.1 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:57 PM | -3.4 | 53.1 | 42% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:55 AM | -3.3 | 53.1 | 42% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:23 PM | -3.4 | 53.1 | 42% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:22 PM | -3.4 | 53.0 | 42% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:00 PM | -3.6 | 52.9 | 41% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:08 PM | -6.5 | 53.6 | 34% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:45 PM | -6.5 | 53.6 | 34% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:58 PM | -6.4 | 53.6 | 34% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:29 PM | -6.5 | 53.6 | 34% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:27 PM | -8.1 | 53.6 | 31% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:52 PM | -6.3 | 52.8 | 35% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:37 PM | -4.2 | 54.5 | 40% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:15 PM | -2.2 | 53.8 | 45% |