2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Ohio Stadium
Northwestern @ Ohio State
Predicted scoreLikely
Northwestern
21.0
Ohio State
32.2
Ohio State win probability: 76%
Margin (Ohio State − Northwestern): 11.2 (80% range -10 to 32)
Total: 53.1 (80% range 30 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:33 PM | 21.5 | 49.9 | 92% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:29 PM | 21.6 | 50.0 | 92% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:50 PM | 21.5 | 50.0 | 92% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:54 AM | 21.5 | 50.0 | 92% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:04 PM | 21.6 | 50.0 | 92% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:29 PM | 20.2 | 50.0 | 90% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:04 PM | 20.8 | 51.2 | 91% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:09 PM | 21.2 | 51.2 | 91% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:37 PM | 21.2 | 51.2 | 91% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:55 PM | 21.3 | 51.3 | 91% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:23 PM | 21.3 | 51.3 | 92% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:42 PM | 11.0 | 52.5 | 75% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:05 PM | 9.6 | 54.2 | 73% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:42 PM | 10.4 | 55.2 | 73% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:20 PM | 11.2 | 53.1 | 76% |