2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Razorback Stadium
South Carolina @ Arkansas
Predicted scoreToss-up
South Carolina
28.2
Arkansas
27.1
Arkansas win probability: 47%
Margin (Arkansas − South Carolina): -1.1 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 55.3 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.62% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:26 PM | 0.7 | 54.9 | 52% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:36 PM | 0.7 | 54.9 | 52% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:58 PM | 0.7 | 54.9 | 52% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:56 AM | 0.7 | 54.9 | 52% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:23 PM | 0.7 | 54.8 | 51% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:18 PM | 0.8 | 54.8 | 52% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:47 PM | -1.4 | 57.3 | 46% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:15 PM | -3.0 | 57.0 | 43% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:05 PM | -3.0 | 57.0 | 43% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:20 PM | -2.7 | 57.0 | 43% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:30 PM | -2.7 | 57.0 | 43% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:31 PM | 0.2 | 57.6 | 50% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:05 PM | -1.9 | 58.6 | 45% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:03 PM | -3.1 | 55.3 | 42% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:09 PM | -1.1 | 55.3 | 47% |