Predicted scoreLean
Texas
20.3
LSU
24.1
LSU win probability: 60%
Margin (LSU − Texas): 3.8 (80% range -15 to 23)
Total: 44.4 (80% range 24 to 66)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.90% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.89% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:30 PM | -3.7 | 48.4 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:36 PM | -3.6 | 48.5 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:00 PM | -3.7 | 48.6 | 41% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:44 AM | -3.6 | 48.6 | 41% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:25 PM | -3.7 | 48.6 | 41% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:22 PM | -2.6 | 48.4 | 43% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:13 PM | 0.3 | 46.1 | 51% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:55 PM | -0.0 | 47.1 | 50% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:03 PM | -0.1 | 47.1 | 50% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:17 PM | 0.2 | 47.3 | 50% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:24 PM | 0.2 | 47.3 | 50% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:27 PM | -0.8 | 43.6 | 48% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:52 PM | 0.9 | 43.8 | 52% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:02 PM | -0.4 | 45.4 | 49% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:12 PM | 3.8 | 44.4 | 60% |