2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Davis Wade Stadium
Auburn @ Mississippi State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Auburn
26.1
Mississippi State
25.3
Mississippi State win probability: 48%
Margin (Mississippi State − Auburn): -0.8 (80% range -21 to 19)
Total: 51.3 (80% range 28 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:31 PM | -0.8 | 51.3 | 48% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:36 PM | -0.8 | 51.4 | 48% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:01 PM | -0.8 | 51.3 | 48% |