2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Davis Wade Stadium
Auburn @ Mississippi State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Auburn
26.2
Mississippi State
27.9
Mississippi State win probability: 54%
Margin (Mississippi State − Auburn): 1.8 (80% range -18 to 22)
Total: 54.1 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.62% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:31 PM | -0.8 | 51.3 | 48% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:36 PM | -0.8 | 51.4 | 48% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:01 PM | -0.8 | 51.3 | 48% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:45 AM | -0.9 | 51.3 | 48% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:12 PM | -0.8 | 51.3 | 48% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:30 PM | -0.4 | 51.4 | 49% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:51 PM | 3.3 | 52.8 | 58% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:22 PM | 3.4 | 54.8 | 58% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:47 PM | 3.4 | 54.8 | 58% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:59 PM | 3.8 | 54.8 | 59% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:30 PM | 3.8 | 54.8 | 59% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:40 PM | 6.1 | 54.0 | 65% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:59 PM | 5.2 | 52.5 | 63% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:35 PM | 5.3 | 53.3 | 63% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:16 PM | 1.8 | 54.1 | 54% |