Predicted scoreLikely
Illinois
23.4
UCLA
32.2
UCLA win probability: 71%
Margin (UCLA − Illinois): 8.8 (80% range -11 to 29)
Total: 55.5 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:38 PM | -4.4 | 55.1 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:28 PM | -4.4 | 55.1 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:32 PM | -4.3 | 55.1 | 39% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:18 AM | -4.3 | 55.1 | 39% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:16 PM | -4.5 | 55.0 | 39% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:10 PM | -4.5 | 54.5 | 39% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:43 PM | 0.4 | 56.5 | 51% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:04 PM | 1.8 | 56.8 | 54% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:06 PM | 1.8 | 56.9 | 54% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:05 PM | 1.8 | 56.8 | 54% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:21 PM | 1.8 | 56.8 | 54% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:25 PM | 6.0 | 58.6 | 64% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:49 PM | 7.9 | 58.1 | 69% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:59 PM | 9.4 | 55.0 | 72% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:05 PM | 8.8 | 55.5 | 71% |