Predicted scoreConfident
Louisiana
32.7
UL Monroe
16.3
UL Monroe win probability: 14%
Margin (UL Monroe − Louisiana): -16.4 (80% range -35 to 3)
Total: 48.9 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 10 | 0.87% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.81% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 7 | 0.80% |
| 28 | 14 | 0.80% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:38 PM | -7.1 | 50.8 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:28 PM | -7.1 | 50.8 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:31 PM | -7.1 | 50.8 | 33% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:19 AM | -7.1 | 50.8 | 33% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:15 PM | -7.1 | 50.9 | 33% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:09 PM | -6.8 | 50.4 | 33% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:41 PM | -8.2 | 52.0 | 30% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:03 PM | -12.1 | 50.8 | 22% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:07 PM | -12.1 | 50.8 | 22% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:06 PM | -11.8 | 50.7 | 22% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:20 PM | -11.8 | 50.7 | 22% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:24 PM | -13.4 | 48.4 | 19% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:48 PM | -12.9 | 49.2 | 20% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:58 PM | -12.2 | 49.8 | 22% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:04 PM | -16.4 | 48.9 | 14% |