2026 Week 11 · Nov 13, 2026, 1:00 AM · Raymond James Stadium
Memphis @ South Florida
Predicted scoreToss-up
Memphis
27.5
South Florida
28.9
South Florida win probability: 54%
Margin (South Florida − Memphis): 1.4 (80% range -19 to 21)
Total: 56.4 (80% range 33 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:36 PM | 8.9 | 58.5 | 70% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:28 PM | 8.9 | 58.4 | 70% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:30 PM | 8.9 | 58.4 | 71% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:20 AM | 8.9 | 58.4 | 70% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:14 PM | 9.0 | 58.4 | 71% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:08 PM | 8.6 | 58.3 | 70% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:40 PM | 5.6 | 58.3 | 63% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:02 PM | 8.7 | 62.0 | 70% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:08 PM | 8.7 | 62.0 | 70% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:06 PM | 8.6 | 62.1 | 70% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:20 PM | 8.6 | 62.1 | 70% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:23 PM | 6.5 | 60.2 | 65% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:48 PM | 1.5 | 58.3 | 54% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:58 PM | 0.9 | 59.9 | 52% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:04 PM | 1.4 | 56.4 | 54% |