2026 Week 11 · Nov 13, 2026, 1:00 AM · Raymond James Stadium
Memphis @ South Florida
Predicted scoreLikely
Memphis
24.8
South Florida
33.7
South Florida win probability: 71%
Margin (South Florida − Memphis): 8.9 (80% range -12 to 31)
Total: 58.4 (80% range 34 to 84)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 38 | 0.62% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.56% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.55% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:36 PM | 8.9 | 58.5 | 70% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:28 PM | 8.9 | 58.4 | 70% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:30 PM | 8.9 | 58.4 | 71% |